Live data as of March 16, 2026 · 14 holdings · Total: $8,089
| Symbol | Name | Shares | Price | Equity | % of Portfolio | Avg Cost | P&L | P&L % |
|---|
Weighted avg beta. Portfolio amplifies market moves by ~18%
Risk-off rotation: tech sells off -12%, energy holds flat, crypto drops -15%, airlines flat, defense holds.
| Holding | Current | Scenario Price | $ Impact | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $1,002 | $882 | -$120 | -12.0% |
| GOOG | $1,100 | $968 | -$132 | -12.0% |
| MSFT | $705 | $620 | -$85 | -12.0% |
| VOO | $1,587 | $1,428 | -$159 | -10.0% |
| BTC | $922 | $784 | -$138 | -15.0% |
| ETH | $462 | $393 | -$69 | -15.0% |
| XOP | $613 | $613 | $0 | 0.0% |
| OXY | $256 | $256 | $0 | 0.0% |
| JETS (short) | -$49 | -$49 | $0 | 0.0% |
| TOTAL | $8,089 | $7,234 | -$855 | -10.6% |
Biggest losers: VOO (-$159), BTC (-$138), GOOG (-$132)
Relative outperformers: XOP, OXY (energy holds), ITA (defense spending insulated)
Recovery timeline: 2-4 months historically. Q4 2018 recovered by April 2019.
Broad selloff with rising correlations. Tech -25%, China ADRs -35%, crypto -30%, energy -10%, airlines -20%, short JETS benefits.
| Holding | Current | Scenario Price | $ Impact | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $1,002 | $752 | -$251 | -25.0% |
| GOOG | $1,100 | $825 | -$275 | -25.0% |
| MSFT | $705 | $529 | -$176 | -25.0% |
| VOO | $1,587 | $1,270 | -$317 | -20.0% |
| BIDU | $294 | $191 | -$103 | -35.0% |
| BYDDY | $358 | $233 | -$125 | -35.0% |
| BTC | $922 | $645 | -$277 | -30.0% |
| ETH | $462 | $323 | -$139 | -30.0% |
| JETS (short) | -$49 | -$39 | +$10 | +20.0% |
| XOP | $613 | $552 | -$61 | -10.0% |
| TOTAL | $8,089 | $6,212 | -$1,877 | -23.2% |
Biggest losers: VOO (-$317), BTC (-$277), GOOG (-$275)
Relative outperformers: JETS short (+$10 gain), XOP (-10% vs -20% market)
Recovery timeline: 6-12 months. 2022 bear bottomed Oct, recovered by Jan 2024 (~15 months).
Total capitulation. All assets fall. Tech -40%, China ADRs -50%, crypto -55%, energy -25%, airlines -35%, defense -20%. JETS short is only partial offset.
| Holding | Current | Scenario Price | $ Impact | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $1,002 | $601 | -$401 | -40.0% |
| GOOG | $1,100 | $660 | -$440 | -40.0% |
| MSFT | $705 | $423 | -$282 | -40.0% |
| VOO | $1,587 | $1,032 | -$555 | -35.0% |
| AMZN | $202 | $121 | -$81 | -40.0% |
| BIDU | $294 | $147 | -$147 | -50.0% |
| BYDDY | $358 | $179 | -$179 | -50.0% |
| BTC | $922 | $415 | -$507 | -55.0% |
| ETH | $462 | $208 | -$254 | -55.0% |
| JETS (short) | -$49 | -$32 | +$17 | +35.0% |
| XOP | $613 | $460 | -$153 | -25.0% |
| OXY | $256 | $192 | -$64 | -25.0% |
| TOTAL | $8,089 | $4,833 | -$3,256 | -40.3% |
Biggest losers: VOO (-$555), BTC (-$507), GOOG (-$440)
Relative outperformers: JETS short (+$17), Cash ($350 preserved), ITA (defense spending resilient in GFC analogs)
Recovery timeline: 12-24 months. COVID V-recovery took 5 months; 2008 GFC took 4+ years for full recovery.
Current sizing: -2 shares = -$49 (0.6% of portfolio). This is effectively negligible as a hedge.
Recommendation: Size up to 5-8 shares (-$123 to -$197). Airlines face headwinds from elevated fuel costs (jet fuel tracks crude oil closely, and Brent is at $82). If the Hormuz situation persists, airline margins get squeezed further. JETS is also trading at 13x earnings vs. the S&P at 27x, reflecting the market's skepticism.
Risk of sizing up: If oil prices normalize rapidly (Hormuz reopens, Iran deal), airlines rally hard. JETS hit $31 at its 52-week high. A move back there would cost ~$13/share on the short.
Verdict: Modestly increase to 4-5 shares. The short serves as a partial hedge to your energy long (XOP + OXY). The two positions create a "fuel price spread" trade: energy longs profit from high oil, JETS short profits from airline margin squeeze. Keep it balanced.
Buy 1 contract of NVDA $165 put, 60-90 DTE. Protects ~$100 of downside below $165 (10% OTM). Cost: ~$6-8/contract. Covers your largest gainer against a tech reversal.
Buy 1 SPY $560 put, 90 DTE, to hedge the $1,587 VOO position. Approx cost: $8-12/contract. This is your broadest single-position hedge since VOO is 19.6% of portfolio.
Instead of individual puts on GOOG/MSFT/AMZN, 1 QQQ $440 put covers tech exposure broadly. More capital-efficient than individual stock puts.
Buy $200-300 of SH for a broad market hedge. Inverse 1x, no leverage decay. Suitable for holding 1-3 months during uncertain periods.
For aggressive tech hedge, $50-100 in SQQQ. Leveraged 3x inverse — use only for short-term tactical hedges (days to weeks). Not for buy-and-hold.
If options available, buy BITO puts as a proxy for BTC downside protection. More liquid than direct crypto options.
| Action | Current Weight | Target Weight | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trim NVDA | 12.4% | 8-9% | Lock in +38% gain. Reduce single-stock concentration. Sell ~1.0 shares (~$183). |
| Trim BTC | 11.4% | 7-8% | Reduce vol. Sell 0.003 BTC (~$223) to fund hedges or add to VOO. |
| Add VOO | 19.6% | 22-24% | Increase diversified core. Use trim proceeds to buy 0.3-0.5 shares. |
| Hold Energy | 10.7% | 10-12% | Keep while Hormuz crisis persists. Set trailing stop at -8%. |
| Hold China ADRs | 8.1% | 5-6% | Trim BIDU by 0.5 shares (~$61) if it rallies to $135+. Hold BYDDY for now. |
Effect: These moves would reduce portfolio beta from ~1.18 to ~1.05-1.08, lowering max drawdown in Scenario C from -40.3% to approximately -34-36%, while preserving upside through VOO broad market exposure.
Do not deploy all at once. Use a tiered approach based on market levels:
| Trigger | Deploy | Target | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 hits 6,300 (-6%) | $100 | VOO | Mild pullback entry. Dollar-cost average into core. |
| S&P 500 hits 5,800 (-13%) | $125 | NVDA at ~$155 or GOOG at ~$260 | Quality tech on sale. These levels represent strong support. |
| S&P 500 hits 5,200 (-22%) | $125 | Split: $75 VOO + $50 BTC | Full bear entry. Historically optimal buying zone. Add risk assets. |
If markets rally instead of pulling back, keep the cash. $350 (4.3% of portfolio) is a reasonable dry powder reserve during uncertain conditions.